The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19)

We describe the main structure and outcomes of new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline framework adopted, multitude data that have been made available after preparation previous MPS04, set earthquake rate ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis novelties modeling outcomes. Specifically, (i) introduce a novel approach estimate visualize epistemic uncertainty over whole country; (ii) assign weights each components (earthquake models) according quantitative testing phase structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) with horizontal peak acceleration observed in last decades, macroseismic intensities centuries; (iv) pioneering build MPS19_cluster, which accounts effect earthquakes removed by declustering. Finally, make interpretation easier wide range possible stakeholders, represent final result also terms probability exceed 0.15 g 50 years.